Natallia Radzina: Russia Is Weak — Little More Pressure Needed

• 17.02.2025, 9:04

The Russian Federation will collapse like the USSR.

“Russia has long lost its superpower status. It is a weak, impoverished, backward country. A little more pressure is needed for this criminal regime, which has inflicted so much suffering on its neighbours, to collapse," said Natallia Radzina, Editor-in-Chief of Charter97.org.

The Belarusian journalist shared this and more in an interview on Yevgeny Kiselyov's YouTube channel. This discussion took place at the Munich Security Conference:

— President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasized the issue of Belarus at the conference. It was mainly about the threats that emanate from the territory of our country to both Ukraine and NATO countries, mainly the Baltic countries: Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, as well as Poland. Indeed, about a month ago, the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said that there was a quiet military takeover of Belarus by Russia, and after the signing of the Treaty on Security Assurances between Putin and Lukashenka in December 2024, it was likely that new Russian military bases would be placed on Belarusian territory in addition to the two that currently exist. Also, the deployment of new Russian brigades or divisions, the formation of which has been taking place in Russia since 2023. And such a threat does exist. This once again proves that Putin is not going to agree to any truce with Ukraine, that there will be no long-term and sustainable peace as a result of the upcoming negotiations, and the West has no choice but to build a tough policy against the Kremlin regime, which will also unfortunately use the territory of my country in its aggressive plans both against Ukraine and against NATO member states.

— Of course, you noticed some changes in the rhetoric of representatives of Western powers in the last few hours.

— Yes, it has changed a lot. I see that US Vice President Vance has already stated that it is possible to deploy US troops in Ukraine and strengthen oil sanctions against Russia. The head of the Pentagon, Hegset, even spoke about the possibility of deploying nuclear weapons in Ukraine. And just recently, the news came that the Deputy Special Representative of the President of the United States for Ukraine and Russia, Keith Kellogg, John Cole, said that the United States does not exclude Ukraine's accession to NATO and a return to the borders of 2014. This is diametrically opposed to what we have heard in recent days, in particular after US President Donald Trump published his post in which he spoke enthusiastically about the conversation with the Kremlin dictator Putin. This, of course, is pleasing.

Americans respond to criticism. The whole world was shocked by these negotiations. Even in the American press there was a lot of criticism. I saw the transcript of the interview of the American journalist with the head of the Pentagon. And the journalist's questions were very harsh, it was said: "You constantly talk about the concessions that Ukraine should make, that is, refuse membership in NATO. Demilitarization must take place. You do not want to deploy American troops in Ukraine, that is, Ukraine must recognize the occupation of five of its regions. And what concessions will Putin, who attacked Ukraine, who is a war criminal who is responsible for the deaths of hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians, make?" And the head of the Pentagon did not know how to answer this question.

I am glad that they are reacting, and the dirty deal, which Kaja Kallas, the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, has already directly announced, will not take place. Europe simply will not allow it, and Ukraine will never come to terms with such an insolent world.

— So. I want to quote what Vice President of the United States JD Vance said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal. It seems to me that his words deserve to be cited in the form of a direct quote. "There are economic tools of leverage, there are of course military tools of leverage against Russia. The option of sending US troops to Ukraine remains on the agenda if Moscow refuses to negotiate.” The Vice President believes that it is too early to say what part of the territory of Ukraine may remain under Russian occupation or what security guarantees the United States and other allies can offer to Kyiv. He said that these details will have to be worked out during the negotiations. "There are as many formulations and configurations as you want, but we take care that Ukraine has sovereign independence. I think there will be an agreement that will shock a lot of people.” I understood that this promise of JD Vance to work out a shocking agreement for many people does not imply a shock from concessions in favor of the Russian Federation. I may indeed be wrong.

— I hope that the shock that we experienced after Trump's post will not be repeated, the United States will draw conclusions from the criticism that hit the administration of the American president as a result of this information.

Because the behavior of the leading democratic state looks very strange. You cannot negotiate with Putin, who has been waging this criminal war against Ukraine for three years, who constantly threatens Western countries, NATO member states, mainly threatens the whole of Europe, and does not hide it. This is, to say the least, erroneous, if not criminal.

It is necessary to tighten oil sanctions, which were announced by Vice President Vance, this was also discussed by other representatives of the US administration. It is necessary to reduce oil prices, as Donald Trump said in his election campaign, it is necessary to arm and support Ukraine. There is no other way to eliminate the threats that today come from the Russian Empire.

— I would like to talk about the incident with the Russian Shahed, which flew to the destroyed fourth power unit of the Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant. It was an impact drone with a high-explosive warhead, it hit the shelter that protects the world from radiation. By the way, please recall the explosion at the Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant, I mean the explosion that occurred in April 1986, because it caused enormous damage to Belarus. Am I right?

— That's true. My father, by the way, was a liquidator at the Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant. On the very first day, his squadron (he served in the helicopter troops) was sent to Chornobyl. They extinguished the reactor, covered it with lead sand. Many of the liquidators who were involved in addressing the aftermath of the accident later died from radiation exposure.

In Belarus, large areas were of course scorched by radiation, primarily in the Homel and Brest regions. And so far, these lands remain seriously contaminated with radiation. And, of course, it is simply impossible to live there and grow some agricultural products. Although dictator Lukashenka did not care about this for a long time: products grown in radiation-contaminated territories continue to be just sold throughout the country. Lukashenka deprived the liquidators of the Chornobyl accident of any benefits that they had in Soviet times.

Therefore, for Belarusians, the accident at the Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant is, of course, a tragedy, because the territory of our country was mainly affected then.

As for the Russian drone strike on the Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant, this once again confirms that Putin is incapable of agreement, he is just a psychopath. At a time when we are talking about peace, they are bombing Kyiv, trying to blow up the Chornobyl NPP. This would inevitably lead to the contamination of the EU countries.

And, by the way, earlier the EU countries stated that the accident at the nuclear power plant in Ukraine would be considered by NATO as a violation of the fifth article of the NATO agreement, because it would cause direct damage to the residents of the member countries of the North Atlantic Alliance. I think that tough measures or warnings to the Russian side should be taken at the Munich conference, what will happen if they continue shelling nuclear facilities in Ukraine.

— What are your feelings about what is happening now both around Ukraine and around Belarus? Will there be a “Munich Deal 2.0”? Will the Germans, the French and the Poles flinch?

— I think that the situation of 1938 will not be repeated. Many experts compared the Munich Conference to the 1938 Munich Agreement, when Daladier and Chamberlain signed an agreement with Hitler and Mussolini, and the Sudetenland was taken from Czechoslovakia and gave to Germany. Literally a few months later, the whole of Czechoslovakia was captured. There was an attack on Poland in 1939, and the Second World War began. Europe remembers this well, unlike the United States, which for a long time did not want to enter World War II and entered only in 1941, when the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor.

In this situation, of course, I very much hope that the conclusions from history are made by the Europeans, they are well aware that the threats from Russia will not go away if agreements with Putin are concluded on these absolutely shameful terms of surrender. I think that after all, a tough strategy will be developed against Putin, because you need to understand that Russia is weak, it is even impossible to compare it with the USSR. It is the twelfth economy in the world now, it is not a superpower, as the Soviet Union was at one time. We know that over these three years, Russia has been very seriously exhausted by the war, this was directly stated by the NATO Secretary General. Today, it has a serious shortage of weapons and personnel. We see the problems in the Russian economy, the economic sanctions imposed against the Russian Federation. It is necessary to strengthen sanctions against the energy sector, sanctions against the shadow fleet, which have already been introduced. They are to keep going further. It's not just about lowering the price of oil, they can close the straits, they need to ask Denmark and Turkey.

— All right. And what about Belarus itself after the so-called "elections", which took place in January. What's next?

— The regime is rotting and collapsing in Belarus. The situation is also difficult, the regime is suffering from economic sanctions imposed by the West.

Now the authorities are not able to hold out in the form of the autarky that existed in the last four years, because the funding of the regime came exclusively from Russia. Today we see serious problems in the economy caused by the fact that Russia is not able to date the Belarusian dictatorship in the same volume. Recently, the Financial Times published very interesting information that at a meeting with Russian Prime Minister Mishustin, a report on the state of the so-called Eurasian integration was heard. It states that Russia cannot keep the post-Soviet states in its orbit. The countries of Central Asia are moving away from Russia's influence, preferring cooperation with China and Turkey. That the countries of the South Caucasus — Armenia, Azerbaijan — are also moving away. Yerevan announced its intention to join the European Union, Azerbaijan also broke off relations with the Russian Federation after the monstrous accident of the Azerbaijani aircraft in the Russian Federation, when it was simply shot down by a Russian missile. Moldova also declared its desire to join the EU and enshrined this desire in its Constitution. This is caused, of course, by the war in Ukraine. Because the post-Soviet countries have understood the danger that Russia poses today, the threat that Russia poses today to their sovereignty. And also the fact that Russia is not able to finance these states, the money runs out. This is also felt in Belarus.

— Azerbaijan was not exactly financed by the Russian economy.

— They also had enough of their oil and gas revenues. I agree.

— On the other hand, it is probably a little premature to talk about the rupture of relations, they just got noticeably cold.

— They've cooled down noticeably, of course. But this suggests that Russia is weak. I talked about this at the very beginning. Strong action is needed against this regime. The West sees Russia as the Soviet Union, but these are incomparable things. Russia has long lost its superpower status. It is a weak, impoverished, backward country. It is enough to push a little for this criminal regime, which brings so much grief to neighboring countries, to collapse.

— Natallia, don't you think that we are exaggerating? We may inspire those who watch or listen to us with excessive expectations, saying that Russia is weak and poor. Still, Russia continues to receive billions of dollars from hydrocarbon exports, despite all the sanctions. Russia has nuclear weapons, and at the head of the Russian Federation there is clearly not a very adequate person who has gone crazy a long time ago. Such a country poses a very great threat to the security of all mankind. Are we ruling it out too soon?

— We once discussed on the same program that in the 80s no one believed that the Soviet Union could collapse. The inhabitants of the USSR themselves did not believe, nor did they believe in the West. No Sovietologist predicted the fall of the Soviet empire. But it happened, and look that now there are all three elements that led to the collapse of the Soviet Union. Sanctions have been imposed on the oil sector, there is a discussion of lowering the price of oil, and an arms race is underway. Recently, there was information that Russia's military budget is allegedly already higher than the combined military budgets of all EU countries. This inevitably leads to the collapse of the economy. Trump has ordered the creation of the Iron Dome missile defence system in the United States, following the example of Reagan's Star Wars. This is a continuation of the arms race. I am convinced that it could become an insurmountable issue not only for Russia but even for China. The third element of the collapse of the USSR was the war in Afghanistan, and now the war against Ukraine is even more destructive for Russia.

I believe that we are not exaggerating, everything can happen quite quickly. In Russia and in Belarus, because Lukashenka's puppet regime will collapse simultaneously with Putin's.

— And how will this happen in Belarus?

— As it happened in the Soviet Union. I think that as soon as everything is sprinkled in Russia, a nomenclature coup in Belarus will happen very quickly. Perhaps a coup from the top along with popular uprisings. We will again see thousands and hundreds of thousands of Belarusians on the streets, and the establishment will very quickly try to renounce the legacy of the criminal Lukashenka regime.

But here it is very important to quickly create a transitional government in the country, which will include representatives of democratic forces, political prisoners who will leave prisons, representatives of emigration, and, yes, probably, part of the nomenklatura that was not directly involved in the repression. Gradually there will be a transit of power and the transition of Belarus to democracy. Further, free democratic elections — firstly parliamentary, then presidential, elections of mayors and local elections. I believe it will turn out something like this.

— Could you please tell me, Natallia, did you notice that the Americans have started to backpedal on Europe's involvement in negotiations about Ukraine's future? You mentioned Kaja Kallas, who quite harshly stated that Europe would not allow to lead Ukraine to surrender. And then the US Secretary of Defence said that Europe will definitely take part in all negotiations concerning the future of Ukraine. Because, as we remember, not a word was said about Europe in Trump's notorious tweet.

— Because European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen also said that Trump's plan will fail if Europe does not participate in its development. The strong position of the European Union on this issue can only please, because it is obvious that there will be no peace on the continent if Ukraine and the European Union do not participate in the negotiations.

— Someone might say, "Who is Kaja Kallas, what can she decide on her own? The United States will decide, the Europeans are weak and depend on the American nuclear safety umbrella.”

— Today, the weakness is shown by the administration of the new US president. There are even warnings now about the possibility of a new Yalta Conference and the division of the world. Is this the power of a democratic state? Is this a world leader who prefers to kiss dictators? It seems to me that the United States will lose its leadership if it tries to appease Russia. If they declare that their main geopolitical competitor is China, then attempts to make peace with Russia, the Chinese puppet absolutely dependent on Beijing, will only lead to a loss for the United States.

We have entered a period of hegemonic wars. And, by the way, the winners in this hegemonic war may be the most unexpected. It may not be the United States or China, the winner may be the European Union. Remember how, as a result of the end of World War II, America suddenly became the hegemon, not Great Britain, as expected.

The same thing can happen now, it's just that Europe needs to maintain strength, confidence, arm itself in a serious way and remain principled and resilient. Because no reconciliation with Putin is possible today. Any reconciliation with Putin is a continuation of the war, including on the European continent. This, by the way, was the report of the Danish intelligence, which stated that if today there is a so-called reconciliation on Putin's terms, then in two years Russia will attack one of the Baltic countries, and in five years a large-scale war will begin on the European continent.

I note that America simply does not realize how strong anti-Russian sentiments are in Europe. Anti-Putin, anti-Russian sentiments in the European Union are very strong, the sentiments are absolutely pro-Ukrainian. Because, look, even in Slovakia, where Fico, who went to Moscow, is an absolutely pro-Putin, pro-Russian politician, protest demonstrations are constantly taking place, including in support of Ukraine. That's why the US just needs to face reality.

— By the way, Zelensky said that he was going to visit Saudi Arabia, but he also did not plan to meet with representatives of the United States or the Russian Federation. It seems that, let's say, a new round of tension is spinning in this complex polygon of relations between Washington, Brussels and Kyiv. It is not yet clear how this will be allowed.

— I now see the process that preceded the collapse of the Soviet Union. I do not believe in any sustainable long-term peace with today's Russia. Putin's Russia will inevitably take suicidal steps, and the Americans, as well as the entire West, will have to move on to decisive measures, that's all. Therefore, there is no other way out, I think that in fact the time is, of course, difficult now and what we are trying to analyze, everything is changing rapidly, not only hourly — every minute, but it is quite clear to me that without a serious confrontation with the Kremlin (and it will not be very long, you do not even need to make some incredible efforts to defeat Putin today) there will be nothing. I am sure that we are on the verge of serious changes, and positive changes.

— After the despondency, those fears, the disappointment that Trump's tweet about his conversation with Vladimir Putin caused, of course, I want to say again about the new statement made by JD Vance, who clearly took on the role of a 'bad policeman'. It served for many, of course, as a cold shower. I will repeat at the end of our conversation. "The United States will hit Russia with sanctions if Russian leader Vladimir Putin does not agree to a peace agreement with Ukraine, which will guarantee the long-term independence of this country and the option of sending American troops to Ukraine remains on the table, there are economic levers of pressure, there are of course military levers of pressure," Vance said.

— Here is the confirmation that we will win.